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avery cardozas casino 2020 download Baccarat for the Clueless New casino in vegas 2020 May Dedicated to the memory of Jadwiga Helena Szanser 1913-96 Contents 1.
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Baccarat for the Clueless John May Dedicated to the memory of Jadwiga Helena Szanser 1913-96 Contents 1.
Introduction Can I play baccarat?
American baccarat; How to play mini-baccarat; Shuffling machines; Promotions; Betting strategy in no-commission games; Do I have to bet every hand?
The History of Baccarat Progression systems and why they don't work; Streaks; The Packer method; How much is the player likely to lose?
Card-Counting The effect of removing a single card from an eight-deck baccarat shoe; End-play; The "perfect" bet; A simple social count to lose less; The secret wager 4.
Analyzing the Shuffle Sequential shuffle-tracking; Shuffle-spooking 5.
Other Advantage-Play Techniques Warping; Card-steering; Coupons 6.
Cheating Dealer errors 7.
Chemin de Fer The player's best strategy; The banker's best strategy; Card counting at Chemin de Fer; Tell-play; Table betting ranges 8.
Baccarat en Banque Winning strategies; The skill of the banker; Yin Yang Yo 9.
Super Pan Nine 10.
Playing for Comps Junkets 12.
The Future Appendixes A.
Glossary of Terms B.
An Evaluation of the Literature C.
The Floating Edge D.
How to Bet When the Player Has the Advantage I was continually overwhelmed by one powerful thought: you have already concluded that it is possible to become a millionaire with absolute certainty, if only one has sufficient strength of character.
And I still retain the conviction that in games of chance if one is absolutely calm, so that one's powers of discrimination and calculation are unimpaired, it is impossible not to overcome the crudity of blind chance and win.
Dostoyevsky, The Gambler 1 Introduction What is baccarat?
Its essence is best transmitted in the evocative imagery the word conjures—wealth, glamour, and taste.
It is the game of the high roller par excellence, the type of gambler who bets in the thousands or tens of thousands.
It is the cordoned off area where the ordinary players gather and gasp at the huge risks that can leave a player better or worse off by over a million dollars in a single session.
It is the game of tuxedoed dealers and plush opulence.
It is James Bond in Casino Royale or Robert Redford in Indecent Proposal.
It is the chandeliers, the immaculate croupiers, the focus of all the pampered luxury the hard bets craps industry can muster.
It is exclusiveness personified— the game which gamblers play in order to show their status and power, to show that extreme turns of fate, gains or losses, do not affect them as they would ordinary men.
It has been the downfall of many ruined aristocrats.
It is, perhaps, the most seductive and gentle road to penury.
This book is quite unlike anything else you have read or are ever likely to read on the subject.
To my knowledge, it is the most comprehensive treatment of the game available.
If you have a question about baccarat, the answer is likely to be here, or the question has yet to be answered.
This book should be useful for the complete novice, but it contains much that is new for the seasoned gambler.
I also answer the oldest questions man has asked since the first bone dice were manufactured some time back in prehistory: Can you beat the odds?
Aside from a few dusty technical papers hidden away in university libraries, no complete study of the modern form of baccarat has been written.
The mysteries of the baccarat deck are myriad, deep, and impenetrable.
Few gamblers understand the subtleties of the game.
This book may hopefully shed some light on the highest stage of gambling.
Baccarat is a game that takes minutes to learn how to play, but its subtleties could very well take a lifetime to understand.
Can I Play Baccarat?
Yes, this is the twentieth century.
You don't have to be a high roller.
You don't even have to understand the rules properly.
Just don't allow anyone to intimidate you.
You might say, "I don't know anything about cards!
In fact, that's probably an advantage.
Skill is of no importance to most baccarat players.
There are skillful strategies that can help you beat the house, and I will explain some of them.
Most players, however, treat the game as what it is: a coin toss with a lot of impressive ritual, which may be glamorous, attractive, amusing, but is essentially unnecessary.
Why should you play baccarat when los angeles poker 2020 odds are stacked in the house's favor?
Well, first, because playing baccarat is in itself an experience worth paying a little for.
Second, while the house does have the edge, its advantage is very small in comparison to other games.
Third, if you read this book, you can have the edge over the casino.
Finally, there are few areas of life where the odds are not stacked against you, as anyone who's ever had a bad experience with a bank manager, real estate agent, or insurance company should know—and they don't pay for your drinks.
In baccarat, you must have a positive mental attitude to succeed.
If you think you will lose, you have already lost before you set foot in the casino.
Don't impose needless limitations on yourself.
Go for the chandeliers!
How to Play Baccarat The following is a brief description of the typical baccarat procedure.
While this should explain the basic structure of the game, players should be aware that the fine details surrounding the game proper can vary not only from one country to another, but from casino to casino.
As in all casino games, you must first transfer your cash into gaming chips, sometimes called "checks.
Often the baccarat section of a casino may be cordoned off, or be in a room of its own.
This tends to intimidate many would-be players; it also caters to the whims of the high roller who does not want to be surrounded by ordinary gamblers.
In order to sit at the table, it is best to know the table minimum beforehand.
If this is not clearly signposted, you may have to ask casino personnel, which leaves you open to the reply, "If you have to ask—you cant afford it!
The baccarat table usually seats twelve players, plus three dealers, two of whom deal with payoffs and chip collection.
Often there will be a beautiful female "shill" playing.
A shill is a casino employee who poses as an ordinary player in order to make other players feel less self-conscious about approaching the table.
The shills play with house money they don't get to keep it if they win and do not affect the game in any way.
If you feel there are shills at the table and are uncomfortable with this, simply ask if this is the case, and the casino must, by law, tell you.
The third dealer, known as the caller, deals out instructions to the players, and passes the "shoe" after each hand.
The shoe is a wooden box used to hold decks of cards in all casino games.
Baccarat is played with either six or eight decks of cards, without jokers.
The game is played like this: one of the dealers will call out, "Shuffle," and begin to shuffle the cards.
Unlike other card games, the shuffle is an elegant maneuver, a practiced interleaving of the cards.
When this is completed, a player will be asked to cut the cards with a special yellow card simply called the "cut-card.
A dealer will turn up the first card from the shoe, and "burn" the number of cards according to the value of the first card.
This simply means he places those cards in the discard tray, where all used cards are dealt, without letting the players see them.
For example, if the first card out of the deck is a 3, he will take three cards out of the deck and place them in the discard tray.
The shoe is then given to the player seated immediately to the right of the dealer.
This player is the "banker.
It then moves counterclockwise around the table.
There is no advantage or disadvantage in being the banker, it is merely part of the ceremony, a hangover from the older European versions of baccarat in which the holder of the bank has significant advantages.
The banker does not have to bet on the bank if he chooses not to.
Players then make their bets, which can be on either player, bank, or tie, or any combination of the three.
The "caller" says, "Card for the player," followed by "Card for the banker," then he repeats himself.
The first and third cards go to the official "player's hand," which is held by whoever made the largest bet on the player.
The second and fourth cards are dealt to the banker.
The value of each hand is determined by adding the value of the two cards.
Aces count as one, 10s and all face cards count as 0.
Suits are not important to the working of the game.
For any total over 9, only the last digit is taken.
For example, the 6 of Clubs and 7 of Spades produces a total of 3.
The object of the game is to get a total as close to 9 as possible.
Now, if either player has an 8 or 9 with their first two cards, it's called a "natural.
If neither hand has a natural, then we first look at the player hand.
If the player holds read article score between 0 and 5, the player draws a third card; if the player holds a score of 6 or 7, the player stands.
Now look at the banker's hand.
With a total from 0 to 2, the banker always draws, with a 3 the bank draws unless the player drew and its third card was an 8.
With a 4, the bank draws unless the player drew and its third card was either an 8, 9, or an Ace.
The banker draws on a total of 5 unless the player drew and its third card was outside the range of 4 through 7.
With a 6, the bank stands unless the player drew and its third card was either a 6 or a 7.
tournament 2020 poker aria a 7, the bank stands.
At every point, the caller will instruct the players what to do.
It is only important to understand the rules if you wish to know the mathematics of the game, and thereby gain an advantage applying hard-won knowledge.
Baccarat is a community game.
All the participants are interested in the outcome of one hand and one hand only, unlike most other card games, where the player faces an adversarial battle against the dealer or another player.
Unlike other card games, all the attention of the players on the table is focused on the four, five, or six cards that make up the baccarat hand.
This is why onlookers gather to watch high rollers at baccarat, as the spectacle is a ritual that could be designed for easy public viewing.
There is something compelling about the tense and deliberate slow turn of each card, upon which may lie the key to riches or ruin.
The hearts of the gamblers soar and fall as each hand brings tragedy or euphoria, fascination and foreboding.
After the final value of the player and bank hand is declared, the high hand wins.
If the hands are of the same value, a tie is declared, and both the player and banker bets are returned to the players.
The payoff for a winning bet on the player is 1 to 1.
The banker bet, which has a higher chance of success than the player bet, is paid at 1 to 0.
This is because the casino takes a commission, or cagnotte, of 5 percent for all winning bets on the bank hand.
Commissions on the bank hand are recorded by one of the dealers.
The amount is usually settled once the shoe has been dealt out or the player leaves the table.
Ties are paid off at 8 to 1.
Casinos usually advertise this as 9 for 1.
Games of chance are run so that a small percentage favors the game operators at the expense of the players.
In the short term, luck will shift back and forth between the house and its customers.
Over the long term, however, the results will average out to give the house its percentage of every bet placed.
Except in very unusual circumstances, the house always plays with this "edge" in its favor.
This edge not only accounts for casinos' profits, but must also cover their expenses.
Someone has to pay for all those chandeliers.
The best bet is to side with the banker.
The banker bet has a house edge of 1.
This is one of the most favorable bets in the casino.
Many players think that because of the commission, the bank is a bad bet.
In fact, the bank has a slight informational advantage—the bank's third-card drawing decision is based on a logical assessment of the player hand.
For example, it helps the bank to stand on a 3 when the player draws an 8 as his third card.
Though normally a bad total, the banker's 3 will beat the player's total 3 to 2 three out of five occasions, giving him a substantial edge in this situation.
The banker benefits from knowing that the player has probably worsened his hand by drawing a 8.
The player s first two cards could total only 0 to 5, so an 8 will help only on 0 or 1 and hinder on 2, 3, 4, or 5.
If the minimum commission ever exceeds one-twentieth of your bet, the bank is no longer a good bet and you should then side with the player.
Incidentally, the banker's strategy is not the best one.
The optimal strategy would be for the banker to draw a holding 4 against a player's Ace, and draw a holding 6 against a player's no-draw.
If you learn nothing else about baccarat, at least know this: it is an amazing fact that by betting on the bank continuously you will have a better chance of winning than 95 percent of all other players!
That piece of advice has just turned you into a baccarat expert!
The house tax on the banker is effectively 2.
Generally speaking, this amount is not deducted after every hand; the croupier will keep track of the individual banker wins and collect the total at the end of the shoe or when the gamer leaves the table.
The 5 percent commission may sometimes be raised to a minimum level, e.
In this case, it is better for him to bet on the player, as that bet will effectively give a lower house edge.
The player bet gives the house a 1.
This may not sound like much, and, indeed, compared to most other bets in the casino it is very favorable as we'll see laterbut you should understand that in the long run, this small advantage to the house is decisive.
Over a long period of play, the house edge becomes more and more decisive, till the gambler is virtually certain to be behind.
To put it in its proper perspective, in baccarat and other casino games this small edge of a little more than 1 percent is responsible for the gilded magnificence of some of the world's grandest casinos.
The foundations of the world's great gambling centers, Las Vegas and Monaco, were laid on just such a small edge.
In a short period of play, however, it is of comparatively little importance.
The tie bet, widely ridiculed as a "sucker bet," has a 14.
The following chart gives you precise information as to the house edges for various bets and their win probabilities in a typical game: An infinite deck is one which never runs out of cards, or, alternatively, a deck which is shuffled after every card is dealt.
No casino would do this; this is for illustrative purposes only, although there is a casino in Las Vegas that once used a 144-deck shoe!
The reason the house edge is just click for source for the tie bet, if six decks are used rather than eight, is related to the fact that when six decks are used the removal of a card changes the deck structure more rapidly.
This decreases the chances of the player and banker drawing same-valued cards, which greatly increases the chances of a tie when it occurs.
To illustrate, say we are playing a game with eight decks and the player draws a 6 for his first card.
The chance that the banker will draw a 6 for his first card is 7.
In a six-deck game, the chance would be 7.
This difference is relatively slight, but becomes more important as more cards are dealt.
Something similar happens to the player and bank bets, though not to any noticeable degree.
The bank bet becomes fractionally more profitable at the expense of the player bet.
It is hard to see why this should be the case, but it probably has to do with the fact that the bank's more complicated rules for drawing a third card allow it to compensate for changes avery cardozas casino 2020 download the ordinary deck structure, while the player's "brute force" rules for drawing a third card do not.
For a more detailed discussion of the effects of card removal, refer to Chapter 3.
Eliminating ties, the banker wins 50.
If ties are not counted as trials, then the house advantage over the banker should be 1.
In this instance, the house "tax" on the banker read article 2.
It can be seen that the banker and player are mutually exclusive entities in the tradition of other gambling games, such as red and black at roulette, or the "do" and "don't" bets at craps.
Unlike other casino games, however, there is no stigma attached to betting against what the other players at the table are doing.
If you sit down and bet banker while everyone else is betting on a player streak, you will not be blamed if the player hand wins.
This may come as news to dice players.
The banker bet is unusual in that it is the only bet in the casino which offers less than even money on a winning bet.
Most casinos cater to human nature by offering wagers which pay 1 to 1 or greater.
The bank bet is the best bet baccarat offers, but because of its 0.
For the same reasons, it will not lose you as much money on a long losing streak.
My inquiries into the existence of the tie bet revealed that it had originally been offered at 9 to 1, but over the years it was gradually replaced by the less favorable payoff.
I have no idea why this is the case.
A casino in Maryland offered the tie at 9 to 1 as part of a weekend promotion last year, though I believe this has been discontinued.
There are probably casinos that offer this elsewhere.
I have also been told that lower bank commissions and higher tie payoffs are often granted to high on request.
Why is the tie bet such a bad wager compared to the bank and player bets?
First, the gambling industry has long realized that people overvalue long-shot wagers, while simultaneously undervaluing short-odds wagers.
By and large, gamblers prefer to risk a small amount of money in the hope of an occasional big payoff than risk a large amount in the virtual certainty of a small payoff.
Because of this, you will usually find that long-odds wagers have a very high house take, because the public will tolerate awful odds in the hope of making a big score.
This isn't just in baccarat, by the way.
In roulette, the even-chance wagers are more favorable than the single numbers; at craps, the don't pass and don't come bets are vastly more favorable than the field bets; at the races or the dogtrack, you will find you will lose much less betting on hot favorites than on outsiders.
Second, tie bets have a higher "variance" than other bets.
This means that runs of luck on the tie are much more extreme than on the bank or player.
Now, this is very unlikely to happen three ties will occur less than.
Should a player take a chance on extremely good fortune, the consequences for the casino are much more damaging.
To protect itself, it compensates for the higher risk by offering worse odds.
Players who wish to mix up their bets should know that a bet on the banker and tie simultaneously has a 55.
Betting banker and player is too impractical to be given any consideration, as it would result in no change to your bankroll if the player wins, or a loss of 5 percent of your wager if the bank wins.
Be aware that mixing your bets has no effect on the expectations of any of the bets, that is, betting player and tie on one hand is identical to betting player on one hand and tie on the next.
You will, however, lose faster if you bet on more than one event simultaneously.
Betting the tie will put a serious drain on continue reading comparatively favorable bank and player wagers.
I would therefore treat the tie exactly as it is—a side bet.
Some would consider this a small amount given that it provides you with a good chance of winning the hand, though I would not recommend this style of betting for protracted play.
Whatever the signposted limit is, players can usually make special arrangements to go much higher than this.
From the casino's perspective, the more that is bet the more money they make, but they must also be careful that a fantastic run of good luck for a player does not wipe out their resources this does happen occasionally.
Sometimes groups of highly-paid executives will monopolize a table and all bet on one side.
Since they are all betting on the same hand, the casino is effectively running the same risk as if one player was betting the total amount.
Dress Codes Despite the image of click here as a game in which the players are immaculately attired in the finest clothing, most casinos in the United States are not so fussy.
As Jack Binion owner of Binion's Horseshoe said, "If you walk into our pit with a cool twenty-five grand, our baccarat manager will determine that you meet our dress code just fine.
This is the twentieth century, after all.
If you don't want to wear a suit, let alone a tuxedo, don't.
Most of the rules and rituals of baccarat are identical everywhere in the world, except that the game is sometimes called Punto Banco, when the three bets are referred to as punto, banco, and egalite instead of player, bank, and tie.
Undoubtedly, the best place in the world to play baccarat, and in many ways its spiritual home, is the French Riviera.
There, it's still possible to wander into a plush casino to see baccarat conducted with the grace and elegance of a string quartet playing Vivaldi.
Baccarat is also played in England, the Philippines, Malaysia, Spain, South Africa, Egypt, South Korea, and the larger countries of Eastern Europe.
European Punto Banco vs.
American Baccarat Americans who play Punto Banco in Europe typically experience a certain amount of culture shock.
The admittance procedures are awkward, usually requiring identification and sometimes advance arrangements.
The casinos usually open and close on a rather arbitrary basis.
American casinos will go to extravagant lengths to court high rollers; in Europe, overt attempts to attract such patrons are absent, and there are usually no free inducements to play except the occasional cocktail or sandwich.
The casinos are smaller, and they are less noisy than their American counterparts, owing to the comparative unimportance of slot machines.
Punto Banco is better suited to the ambiance of Europe.
Be aware that the aristocracy in Europe, who still run large elements of the casino industry, particularly in countries with a strong silver oak casino no deposit bonus codes march 2020 tradition including both royalist Britain and republican Francehave a very elitist, almost snobbish attitude toward membership criteria.
In some cases, there is a state of mind toward the American player that borders on the xenophobic.
Money is not the only thing that counts in Europe; taste and good manners are also important no bad thing in itself.
Extravagant displays of wealth are frowned upon.
A large amount of money will not guarantee entry into a high-society establishment.
Dress codes are stricter, though this is changing.
Usually smart casual clothing is the norm, except for the most plushly carpeted establishments.
This is particularly the case in the capital cities of Europe.
The provincial areas are generally more laid-back and cater to the local and less wealthy punter.
Because of this, you will not find any baccarat in the smaller towns, as the regulars could not afford to play it.
Players should be aware that European players are much less vocal than their American counterparts in reacting to turns of fate.
An exasperated "Mon Dieu" is about as heated as it gets.
What might be regarded as acceptable emotional expression in the United States might get you permanently barred from the tables.
Nevertheless, if you are serious about the game, you must really play where it is meant to be played, in its spiritual home.
How to Play Mini-Baccarat Mini-baccarat is a game more suited to the casual gambler.
It was introduced largely to appeal to ordinary gamblers who felt intimidated by the main version of the game.
Mathematically, it is exactly the same as its big-table cousin, but without the ceremony and with a generally friendlier atmosphere.
The game is played on a blackjack-size table with seven player spots and a solitary dealer.
Each player spot has two circles in front of him, one marked "player" the other "banker.
Eight or six decks of cards are used.
All the chips are kept in a tray directly in front of the dealer.
In front of this is a box where commissions on the bank hand are recorded.
The dealer does all of the shuffling, a player selected by the dealer cuts the cards when the shuffle has been completed, and the cut decks are put in the shoe.
As with the big-table game, practices vary, but a common method of determining how many cards will be dealt is to turn one card face up and burn a number of cards equal to the value of that card.
Then the players make their bets and the game begins.
The dealer will give the first and third card to his right the player hand and the second and fourth card to his left the banker hand.
The rules are identical to those of big-table baccarat.
The game is currently offered exclusively in the United States, as other countries with legalized gambling tend to derive more of their profits from high rollers than large numbers of ordinary players.
The game, however, has become very successful in the United States.
In Mississippi, for example, it has almost completely displaced big-table baccarat.
Shuffling Machines New machines that shuffle cards automatically have recently been introduced on an experimental basis at mini-baccarat in some casinos.
When the pack of cards has been dealt, the dealer gathers up the discards and places them inside the machine, where they are shuffled more thoroughly and more quickly than any human dealer could manage.
Casinos hire these devices to get more hands dealt per hour by reducing shuffling time.
The more hands that are dealt, the more money they make, and the less risk they run.
Also, players tend to leave the game during a shuffle.
The faster the shuffle, it is less likely players will leave.
The devices do not affect the odds of the game in any way.
Players are naturally suspicious of the machines, believing they may be programmed to help the house in some way.
It is difficult to see how this could be achieved.
In fact, it is more likely that the thorough shuffling creates a game that is more random, and therefore more "honest," than a human shuffle could.
The devices do not appear to be particularly well designed; frequently they jam, and sometimes they break down altogether.
The dealers generally hate them, perhaps because they feel they are being replaced.
The machines can also ruin the atmosphere.
If you do not like playing with a shuffling machine, vote with your wallet and go elsewhere; there are plenty of casinos that do not use them.
Promotions The Horseshoe, in Las Vegas, was among a number of casinos which have recently been offering a 4 percent commission.
Authors such as Victor H.
Royer have stated without reference to any specific casino that 3 percent commissions are sometimes offered.
Frankly, I doubt it.
The banker bet would have an average advantage of only 0.
This is so small as to be hardly worth the casino's while in offering the bet.
Nevertheless, the Sahara Sands in Las Vegas went even further than this in 1996 and did away with the commission altogether!
Unfortunately, this was only during a very brief promotion.
For the lucky players who chanced on it, however, they had 1.
A few years back, there were several casinos in Hong Kong, Macao, and Sri Lanka, before the most recent violence there, which offered "happy hours," with no bank commission, on a regular basis.
If you should ever find a casino offering reduced or no commission, the table below will help you find out its value.
Generally, anything less than 4 percent becomes very appealing from the player's point of view, but it is only likely to exist as a short-term promotion.
Why do casinos offer promotions?
Largely as a loss leader, to attract new customers and reward regular players.
In truth, the casino doesn't lose much when it does offer a promotion, because most players, rather than sticking all their money on the bank as the math would dictate, follow trending systems which dilute their advantage with unfavorable bets on the player or tie.
The 6 percent commission is a rule enforced by some Far Eastern casinos.
Do not play any such game, as this will only encourage the greed of casino owners everywhere.
If you do, however, bet on the player as much as you can.
If you ever find a no-commission game, it can be very valuable; 1.
This will allow you to play with a please click for source advantage than many professional poker and blackjack players, and you will not have to perform the mental gymnastics necessary to win at these games.
You will also be able to win more money than you would at any other game in which you have an advantage because the bank bet has a very low variance.
This means that you will not get streaks as wild as you would in poker or blackjack, chiefly because in baccarat you do not have to put up any more money than your initial stake.
Therefore, you can bet much larger amounts in baccarat than you could at other games with the same advantage.
Betting Strategy in No-Commission Games To most players, the difference between the house having a 1 percent advantage over you, and you having a 1 percent over the house, might not seem like much.
He has a greater than 90 percent chance of doubling his money before losing it.
Note that this is the exact reverse of the ordinary situation, in which the bank gets a 5 percent commission.
When the odds are against you, the best tactic is to shove out as much money as possible.
When they are with you, you want to employ the opposite strategy, betting conservatively till your long-run advantage kicks in.
The correct way to bet in a no-commission game is simple: bet 1 percent of your "bankroll" on each and every hand.
Your bankroll is the amount of money you're willing to risk gambling, and should be separated from the money you need for necessities.
Of course, it's not practical to reassess your bet on every hand, but you should reassess your bet every time you take a break or if your bankroll rises or falls dramatically.
A good strategy is to cut your bets in half when your bankroll is halved, and to double your bets when your bankroll is doubled.
This will allow you to win at the fastest rate possible without running an unacceptable risk of going broke.
For more information on correct betting strategy, see Appendix D.
Do I Have to Bet Every Hand?
Neither in big-table nor mini-baccarat is it necessary to bet on every hand.
The house knows that a lot of players like to wait for certain win-loss patterns to occur before placing a bet.
Some casinos will continue dealing regardless of whether or not there is a wager on the table.
The speed of the game varies greatly according to the number of players at the table and the habits of the players.
Many players enjoy heightening the tension of the game by turning their cards over with great deliberation.
On average, big-table baccarat is by far the slowest of all casino table games.
Mini-baccarat is another story, however, and as many as six hundred hands can be dealt in an hour.
Even playing alone, you would rarely get through eight decks in much less than an hour at the big game.
Tipping In both versions of baccarat it is customary to tip, or "toke," the dealer s when you leave the table or after a series of big wins.
How much is up to you.
Generally, the table minimum is the least you can get away with, but don't tip if you feel the dealer has been in any way discourteous or intimidating, or appears to enjoy seeing players lose.
If you have received good service, however, it is in your interest to encourage the service to continue at the same high standard.
The casino personnel understand that you are less likely to tip after a losing session.
By the same token, the dealers expect you to tip heavily after a big win.
Personally, I don't agree with this logic.
My money is my money.
The game is the game.
Unless the dealers are cheating the house for my benefit, they should have no say in whether I win or whether I lose.
My sole criterion for tipping is to do so when the casino personnel have made my gambling more enjoyable.
The dealers derive a large part of their income from tips.
Tipping is pretty much customary the world over.
The exception is in England, where tipping is forbidden by law.
In other parts of Europe, such as Germany, dealers may not receive a salary and derive their sole income from tips.
In these countries you may find that if you best online casinos 2020 not tip generously the dealers will simply get up and leave the table.
Tipping, in effect, adds to the house edge against you.
Tipping a few average-size bets every hour will double the casino advantage and jeopardize your bankroll.
Because of this, you should be very wary of overtipping.
In the larger casinos, don't worry about it too much; dealers in the baccarat pit are usually pretty well paid.
Is Baccarat a Good Deal?
Either version of baccarat offers some of the best odds in the casino.
Craps is the only game to offer a straight-up bet with a better bet— the line bet with odds has a house edge of just 0.
However, the field, proposition, and other bets have advantages of between 1.
The relatively new games of Red Dog or Acey-Deucey has a comparatively low house edge, at 2.
Both these games require you to play the best strategy even to lose at this rate.
Other forms of casino gambling do not even come close to baccarat.
The dice game of Chuck-a-Luck is strictly for suckers only, with house edges ranging from 3 to 8 percent on its various wagers.
The Wheel of Fortune, or Big Six, has a very prohibitive 18 percent take, while keno, the loser's game par excellence, has a lottery-style 25 percent edge.
Slot machines, which have become the casinos' bread-and-butter in recent years, can have a house edge of close to break-even or a fraudulent 20 percent, depending on casino policy and the value of the coin required for play.
On every wager, blackjack players are estimated to earn, on average, 2 percent for the house.
Although skilled players can actually turn the odds in their favor, there are very few who are sufficiently talented, patient, and disciplined to actually do this on a regular basis.
In fact, the true professional can turn almost any casino game to his advantage, but that's another story.
Baccarat clearly provides the best combination of simplicity and favorable odds in the casino.
If you ignore the tie bet, then the game is by far the casino's best value.
Unfortunately, the majority of ordinary players ignore the grand game and head straight for the slots.
It's partly because of the intimidating and secluded atmosphere that surrounds the big table, but many people are also put off by the complicated drawing-and-standing rules and the peculiar scoring system, which is silly considering that it really doesn't make any difference whether you understand them or not.
You'll often wander past a luxurious baccarat pit set with crystal chandeliers and find a string of empty tables.
Don't walk by; this is a golden opportunity to learn the game.
You can only get so much from a book; experience the thrill of baccarat first hand.
Richard Epstein, writing in The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, traced the game to a Roman legend written click to see more before the birth of Christ.
The legend tells of a young vestal virgin whose fate was to be decided by the gods.
She was to throw a nocem dare, or nine-sided die.
If she rolled an 8 or 9, she was to become a high priestess.
If she rolled a 6 or 7, she was to be disqualified from religious office and her vestal status discontinued.
Anything less and she was to walk into the sea, never to return.
Structurally, baccarat is descended from a Chinese game called Pai Gow, a tile game.
Pai Gow literally means "to make nine"—the object of baccarat—and shares modulo ten arithmetic and shifting bank option with the Italian game.
The game may have been introduced into Italy via the explorations of Marco Polo.
Two derivations of the game subsequently evolved—baccarat en Banque, and with the spread of the game into France during the reign of Charles VIII, a version now called chemin de fer.
At first it was an illegal game, but after are poker tournaments vegas march 2020 for while baccarat was legalized and a tax was imposed on it which was donated to the welfare of the underprivileged.
Upon legalization, the game soared in popularity across France.
The connection with charity proved to be a masterstroke, as it helped clear the people's natural association between gambling and decadence—they could now be conscientious gamblers.
The game would fall out of fashion in years to come, and as quickly and mysteriously it would return.
During the reign of Napoleon it was unfashionable, and later, at the time of Louis-Philippe, the "People's King," it was banned altogether, and remained so from 1837 to 1907, when all gambling in France was declared illegal.
Nevertheless, it thrived in the underworld.
As it was played then, the game was very much a staple of cardsharps and cheats, and without official approval the cheated player had littlre redress.
Late in the nineteenth century, these games became staples of the casinos across Europe, especially France and Monte Carlo.
Syndicates would form to hold the bank, and baccarat became the game of choice among the rich, as it acquired a reputation for European sophistication.
The game also became popular among the English aristocracy, most notably under the stewardship of John Aspinall's private games and at the famous Crockford's club in London.
Trente et quamnte is a French card game, the object of which is to achieve a total close to 31.
Scarney Baccarat and Quick-Draw Baccarat were unsuccessful attempts to mix the best elements of blackjack and baccarat.
Both games are no longer available in the casinos.
The other games are given full descriptions in later chapters.
In 1890, the game reached its highest level of importance when it shook the foundations of the British Empire in what is now referred to as the Royal Baccarat Scandal, a fascinating and true tale.
The affair concerned the bachelor and philanderer Sir William Gordon-Cumming, a personal friend of the Prince of Wales, with whom he played the then illegal game of baccarat at many country house parties.
On one evening in the 1890s, at the home of a shipping millionaire, live of the players accused Gordon-Cumming of manipulating the stakes at the gaming table, and he was threatened with public exposure.
In order to protect the prince's reputation, he signed an agreement never to play baccarat again.
The prince refused to defend his lifelong companion, and Gordon-Cumming was banished from the royal circle.
Bitter at this betrayal of trust, Gordon-Cumming launched a lawsuit in order to clear his name, but despite serious irregularities in the evidence, he was defeated and disgraced.
Due to his high living, the prince remained popular with the masses, but the affair seriously tested the patience of his mother, Queen Victoria, and the British establishment.
When gambling was again legalized in France in 1907, baccarat regained its former popularity.
Beautiful casinos were built throughout the country in which the game enjoyed pride of place.
Notable casinos exist to this day in Nice, Cannes, Biarritz, Deauville, and, of course, neighboring Monaco.
Baccarat remained popular among the aristocracy, and source first primitive attempts to analyze the game were made by a number of French mathematicians.
Syndicates began to form to hold the bank in that country in the different forms of baccarat, as it became apparent that much money was to be made from absorbing the wealth of nouveau riche playboy aristocrats.
By the 1920s, a team formed at Deauville calling itself the Greek Syndicate, led by Nico Zographos, arguably the most successful freelance professional gambler of all time.
They were to dominate the high-stakes gambling scene in Monte Carlo, Cannes, and Deauville for the next few decades, their iron grip broken only temporarily by the outbreak of World War II.
The syndicate accepted challenges from all comers, like the bank in baccarat en banque.
They were a five-man partnership, also composed of an Armenian and a Frenchman, despite the syndicate's name.
The syndicate played a version of baccarat en banque entided a tout va, meaning they played without limits.
The wealthy came from every corner of the globe with the ambition of breaking the syndicate.
Its success was largely due to Zographos.
An Athens-born former engineer, he was one of the first gamblers to apply scientific methods to gambling.
With Zographos's skill, the Greek Syndicate prospered for more than thirty years; he was capable of memorizing an entire deck of cards, and, at the same time, developed an unparalleled ability to read his opponent's body language.
The methods Zographos used are indicative of a prototype card-counting system see Chapter 3 combined with what is now known as "tell-play" see Chapter 8.
Both methods were not widely understood or explained until long after Zographos's death, in 1953.
He once bet one million francs on one hand, when the syndicate's funds were dangerously close to extinction.
On the first deal he received a zero-valued card the worst card to begin withthe second was the 9 of Diamonds, making a total of 9, a perfect natural.
The hand broke the losing streak against the syndicate, and Zographos put the 9 of Diamonds on the pennant on his yacht.
An analysis of the last few hands which led to the syndicate's demise suggests that the syndicate banker was seriously lacking in elementary knowledge of the probabilities of the game.
With the end of the syndicate, the popularity of high-stakes betting faded for a time; but the syndicate had given, as its legacy to the game that had both made and ruined it, the mystique upon which its allure depends.
In the 1950s, the center of the gambling world abruptly shifted to Las Vegas.
Tentative attempts were made to introduce chemin de fer, without success.
Las Vegas glitz and European elegance proved incompatible.
Nevertheless, a version of the game evolved called Punto y Banca.
This was first introduced at the famous Mar del Plata casino, in Argentina.
The game spread through Latin America to pre-communist Cuba, where it attracted the attention of one Tommy Renzoni, the man responsible for bringing the game from Havana to the Dunes Casino in Las Vegas, in 1959.
On the first night the game was introduced the players used cash, and the owners found themselves with a profitable new avenue of gaming revenue on their hands.
Renzoni never received credit for introducing the game and remained a casino employee of modest income compared to the players his brainchild attracted.
After failed attempts to introduce further game innovations into Vegas and the death of his wife, Renzoni became disillusioned with life.
One day he simply walked blindly into the middle 2020 uk poker championship a street and took his own life.
His legacy, Punto Banco, gradually replaced the older versions of baccarat.
This is the modern form of the game.
Americans now simply call the game baccarat, or sometimes baccarat chemin de fer.
It differs from the European forms of the game in that the house banks all the bets, the players may bet on a tie or the bank hand, and standing-and-drawing decisions are not permitted.
It is purely a mechanical game.
Progression Systems and Why They Don't Work There are a number of systems that have been devised for baccarat that appear to work.
Often they are available through mail order at inflated prices.
The ads will tell you how you can live a life of luxury if you buy their easy-to-use system.
In gambling circles, the phrase used to describe such systems is "snake oil," after the con men who lived in the Old West selling their worthless potion as a cure-all to a society ignorant of medical science.
Most of the systems involve some sort of progressive betting.
They can be all be used on either bank although the 19-20 makes things a little awkward or player bets, but not the tie, as the 8 to 1 payoff complicates matters.
Most of the older systems were originally designed for roulette.
I will examine a few, some of which you may have heard about: The Martingale This is the oldest and simplest system though it is often misnamed "martindale".
It was first devised in the sixteenth century by the mad Polish inventor Joseph Wronski.
Thousands of people rediscover it each year, as it is a very seductive system.
The player doubles his bet every time he loses.
In theory, you could keep on doubling your bet and never lose.
This would, however, only be true if you avery cardozas casino 2020 download infinite capital, as well as infinite time.
The Martingale bettor will almost certainly win in the short term.
This convinces a lot of players that it works.
In casino reopening 2020, all they are doing is giving themselves a good chance of a small win offset by a small chance of a large loss.
Six losses will take you beyond many table maximums.
The anti-Martingale is a system in which the opposite strategy is played.
You double your bet every time you win, and reset it to the amount of your first bet when avery cardozas casino 2020 download lose.
Consequently, you have a large chance of a small loss and a small chance of a large win.
There are numerous other variations on this most popular of betting systems.
Without exception, they have no effect on the long-term odds of the game.
In the short term, however, they can have a significant effect.
A player who uses the Martingale is certain to walk away from the tables a winner, provided he does not encounter a streak of sufficient length to wipe out his bankroll, but when this does happen, the loss is so great that it counterbalances the series of small wins the bettor is enjoying.
In effect, the gambler is trading a small chance of a great loss for a large chance of a small win.
If he wishes to win a very small amount, he is likely to do it, but if he plays the Martingale system for any length of time, total ruin is inevitable.
A Martingale bettor should expect to win his initial bankroll 50 percent of the time minus the house edgebefore encountering a streak of sufficient length to wipe him out.
Contrary to popular belief, table maximums don't prevent Martingales from working, nor, for that matter, any other progression system.
If you encounter a streak of sufficient length to take you above the table maximum of the casino you are playing, you can simply go to a casino with a higher maximum.
Binion's Horseshoe has stated publicly that it will accept a bet of pretty much any size.
No-limit games can still be found in Monte Carlo, and many casinos will go significantly higher than the table maximum with a little negotiation, especially once they have established that you are using a Martingale system.
You can get a friend or friends to bet your money for you on another spot, which is a cunning way of betting above the table maximums without changing the odds.
Of course, if your losing streak becomes sufficiently long that you have to start betting in the trillions, no one will accept your bet, as the amount of money in the world is limited.
It's not necessary to go to such extremes, though.
The return on investment, though, would be absolutely paltry in percentage terms, and, in fact, the syndicate would lose money, as its winnings would be more than outstripped by inflation.
Consider, also, that there is no such thing as a limit to a streak.
It's not impossible for the player or bank hand to win ten thousand hands in a row.
It's fantastically unlikely, and will probably never occur during the life of the human race, but it is possible.
The d'Alembert This was devised by Jean d'Alembert for use in the private roulette games offered in eighteenth-century France.
Such games offered the player a 50 percent wager, as they had no zeros, as in modern American roulette.
Because of this, d'Alembert's system made him a fortune.
D'Alembert argued that "nature seeks equilibrium," and his system is designed to exploit this.
The d'Alembert is additive, where the Martingale is multiplicative.
The bettor simply adds one to his bet for a loss and subtracts one for a win.
It does not offer the almost certain short-term win that the Martingale does, but there is also no dramatic escalation in bet size that causes many Martingale bettors to be wiped out in a single session.
Unfortunately, nature does not seek equilibrium when the laws of the game are unbalanced, as is the case with the small house edge at baccarat.
The Fibonacci This system is named for Leonardo Fibonacci of Pisa, a thirteenth-century mathematician whose Liber Abaci was one of the most influential textbooks on arithmetic of that period.
The system originates from Fibonacci's famous puzzle: how many pairs of rabbits will be produced each month, please click for source with a single pair, if every month each productive pair bears a new pair which becomes productive for the second month and so on.
The answer is: 1,1,2, 3,5,8,13,21.
At some unknown point in time, a gambler observed that if this sequence were applied to a series of bets, he could generate a profit with just two successive wins, regardless of what happened previously.
It quickly became a popular system and passed into gambling folklore.
The Labouchere or "cancellation" system Of indeterminate origin, this system is any series of numbers that adds up to the total win target the gambler desires.
The first and last in the series becomes the initial bet.
If the bets win, the numbers are canceled, and the bettor works inward through the series until all the numbers have been canceled, at which point the target win has been obtained.
If the bet loses, its value is added to the series, which has to be canceled before the bettor progresses inwards.
One number is added to the series if the bet loses, while two numbers are canceled after a win.
Therefore, it seems that the Labouchere system offers a 2 to 1 proposition on a 1 to 1 bet.
The Labouchere, d'Alembert and Fibonacci systems all operate on the same principles, but because the bet escalation is not so rapid, the gambler is likely to last longer, though at the cost of being less likely to win as much on a favorable streak.
By contrast, systems such as the antiMartingale effectively trade a large chance of a small loss for the small chance of a great win.
This more aggressive approach is ideal for the player who doesn't mind losing small amounts, and every now and then will score a spectacular coup.
By all means, invent your own betting systems.
They can be great fun.
Then you can gamble in a style which most suits your character.
Besides, it's fun to personalize your gambling.
Just don't ever fool yourself into thinking you have discovered a winning system.
Richard Epstein's Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic contains a complicated technical explanation of the fallacious nature of betting systems.
Every gambler would do well to remember Epstein's first theorem: "An unfavorable game remains unfavorable regardless of the variation in bets.
Casinos encourage players to record the results of streaks by providing tally sheets and pens.
Would they do this if they thought it helped you win money from them?
The most popular streaking system is known as the Avant Dernier.
The idea behind this system is simple: you simply bet on the outcome of the sequence which showed up two times before last, so a sequence of hands which went banker, player, banker, player, player would tell you to bet on the player.
There are many other trending systems.
Sometimes they are called "hot," "cold," or "impatient," styles of betting, where a gambler either waits for a sequence of hands favoring the player or banker and bets the opposite, while the other involves waiting for such a sequence to occur and sticking with the trend.
These systems have their origin in a misunderstanding of the law of averages.
Players who follow streaks do so on the assumption that a sequence of wins for the bank, player, or tie means that streak is more likely than not to continue.
In fact, after a win by the bank, player, or tie, the subsequent chance of this bet winning again is less likely, though by such a small fraction of a percent that most modern computers are incapable of calculating it.
For all practical purposes, there is no relation between the result of one hand and the next.
Buying into streaks, betting either for or against them, only increases your chances of losing, as gaining the best chance of winning all your bets should be with the banker.
This may come as a surprise to experienced baccarat players.
It may seem strange that simply continuously betting on the bank is superior to any other strategy, but this is undeniably the case.
If you attempt to ride streaks or follow trends, your expectation will be an average of the three bets, which will give you greater losses in the long run.
Gambling "authorities," such as John Patrick in his series of gambling books, continue to advocate the use of trending techniques.
Some shoes are apparently player-biased, some are bank-biased, some are tie-biased, and some are, intriguingly, not biased at all.
Unfortunately, there is no way of knowing if a shoe will remain with the bias if any it started with, or if it will behave completely differently.
Streaks only arrive after the event and are completely useless for predicting future events.
There is no truth at all in the popular misconception that "baccarat is a game of streaks.
Nevertheless, this is no less absurd than the advice offered by many writers who claim expert knowledge of gambling, yet do not appear to understand the law of independent trials.
Streak players have developed their own interesting array of special terms.
A streak of six banker wins is called a "dragon," while a shoe of alternating bank and player wins is called "choppy," or a "Ping-Pong.
Unfortunately, this leads the gambler to detect patterns where none exist.
It's just like seeing faces in the clouds.
Take the example of a ten-hand series of wins for the banker.
On average, this will occur once every 512 hands.
Sometimes it will occur more frequently, sometimes less.
If you play 512 hands you might well get a ten-hand streak three or four times.
Then you might think you could buy into a series of bank wins in the future and make a big profit.
The next series of 512 hands, however, just might contain no ten-hand runs at all, and things will have evened out, while you have lost your money.
Forgetting for a moment the important question of card-counting, the best strategy for a player depends on what he is trying to achieve.
In a sense, it is irrational to play baccarat, or any other casino game, as the player would have a higher expectation by not playing at all.
If a player wants to win a small amount, he should use a system such as the d'Alembert, which gives a good chance of winning over a session or two, without too much risk.
For the best chance of success, the gambler should always bet on the bank, regardless of the system he uses.
The Packer Method During Christmas 1996, Kerry Packer and ten Asian acquaintances descended on Las Vegas.
They were credited click to see more contributing to a 19 percent drop in quarterly profits at the Hilton Hotel Corporation, resulting in shares dropping 11 cents.
Packer, an Australian media baron who owns a share of casinos in Sydney and Melbourne, is a celebrated gambler.
How did he do it?
Has he discovered the secret of winning baccarat?
Packer's win, while huge by the standards of ordinary gamblers, is unsurprising considering the stakes he plays for.
While the casinos have the advantage when they play against him, even their resources are dwarfed by his own.
As one Las Vegas boss who has refused to allow Packer to play put it, "If you let him dictate the terms, you are gambling like any other sucker—but for millions invested by stockholder's against a billionaire's pocket money.
The moment he edges ahead he quits.
This is crucial to his success.
If a player chains himself to the tables, the casino will eventually grind him down; but a player is likely to have runs of luck in the short term, and is virtually certain to be winning at some point.
Packer's limitless resources mean there is no possibility of him being ruined by an adverse streak of bad luck.
Unfortunately for him, Packer's winnings are small when contrasted to his total wealth.
You can, nevertheless, borrow elements of Packer's successful strategy.
Never overbet your bankroll, and do not play for long periods.
That way you will limit your losses and likely stay a winner in the short term.
Of course, to make real money in baccarat we have to use something altogether more potent.
Incidentally, should you ever spot a whale such as Packer dropping a fortune, you have a rare and very valuable opportunity to beat the system—not at baccarat, however, but at the only serious gambling game on earth whose stakes exceed that of baccarat—the stock market.
If the amounts lost by a high roller are significant compared to the total wealth of the casino chain, the value of the company will soar and you will have an opportunity to invest in the organization before this becomes common knowledge.
Note: this is not insider trading; it's perfectly legal and ethical.
It also gives you the great satisfaction of making money out of a millionaire's bad luck.
How Much Is the Player Likely to Lose?
How much money should you take with you to the casino?
Too many chips are impractical and provide too much temptation.
Too little and you might run out of money with embarrassing haste if the game goes against you, and the chance of a wipeout is naturally increased the less you bring.
A simple method to determine how much to bring to an individual session of baccarat is given below: Determine how many hands you want to play, and what you will bet on average per hand.
That's just the most likely single outcome.
If you add up all the other possible outcomes you'll find that it's very unlikely to occur.
Your actual results will usually be just above or just below this figure.
You can get your overall session fluctuation by multiplying this ratio by the bet and the square root of the number of hands.
The square root of 500 is 22.
With this figure you can work out how many chips to buy.
The Strategy of Maximum Boldness For the player who wishes to win a certain amount of money, the best method is known as the "strategy of maximum boldness.
It works on this principle: the longer a player stays at the baccarat table, the more certain it is that he loses the mathematically expected amount determined by the odds.
For example, after a excited german gambling law 2020 with hands the player could well be ahead or behind.
After one hundred thousand hands the odds against him being ahead are astronomical.
The best technique is to bet the amount of money you intend to risk during the whole of your life, your goal, at baccarat or any form of gambling, on one hand.
For one hand, the house advantage is of little importance; luck plays an important part.
Note: if you bet on the bank, as you should, then you would have a greater than 50 percent chance of winning.
There is a secret bet that a skilled baccarat player can make which will actually give him an advantage in this situation see Chapter 3.
Several gamblers have tried this, betting hundreds of thousands of dollars, and won.
This may seem like crazy logic, but it is unquestionably the best way to bet in a game where the odds are against you, and it's not just my recommendation, but the recommendation of the some of the most talented statisticians, game theorists, and mathematicians in the world.
Of course, many players might consider that it's worthwhile betting at lower levels in order to enjoy their gambling over a longer period of time, since this strategy doesn't take into consideration the pleasure of gambling itself.
On the other hand, if you wish to last a little longer at the tables, you will pay a high price in terms of your opportunity to win any money.
This represents a chance of going broke that has increased by more than 40 percent from the "maximum boldness" strategy.
How to Win at Every Casino in Las Vegas The key to this strategy depends on the ambiguity of the word "win.
Therefore, to claim victory over every casino in Vegas or Atlantic City, Monte Carlo, or London all you have to do is win your first bet in each casino.
A player usually has a greater than 99 percent chance of being ahead of the casino at some point, assuming he has a reasonable bankroll and avoids placing too much money on the tie bet.
Obviously, your betting strategy will be important as well.
If you restrict yourself to the table minimum at all times you will have slightly less chance of ever being ahead of the casino, but you will not lose so much money on a very unfavorable streak.
The more you do this the more your chances of having a session in which you are never ahead, and in doing so lose your capital.
Of course, you are not going to make any real money with this strategy, but you will be able to claim truthfully to have done something the greatest gamblers in the world have not done.
Perhaps you will make a fortune when you sell your story to Hollywood.
Caveat Emptor There are currently progression systems offered for sale through the Internet.
Many are glossily advertised and come with the slick confident assurances of professional con men.
All such systems are variants of existing progression systems.
It is unreasonable to buy such systems because: 1.
All progression systems operate on the same basic principles and are all, therefore, known.
Unfortunately, there is always a ready market of people who wish to make their fortunes quickly and painlessly.
My way to riches is complex and requires study, but it does work.
The ways of the system sellers are short and painless but lead nowhere.
There are a number of key phrases that mark out the system seller.
Inevitably, their advertisement will have the word "free" in there somewhere, which is only playing with words, since there is always money to pay further down the line or they wouldn't be in business.
They will often talk about baccarat in a pseudo-scientific manner, using words and phrases which may not be familiar to you but do sound impressive.
They may talk about "real-world conditions.
So they will pretend that baccarat computer simulations are not mathematically the same as baccarat played in a casino.
Of course, computer simulations are not as exciting as playing in the real casino, but that is another matter.
Most people never play enough baccarat in a lifetime to determine with absolute certainty that a system does or does not work.
This is what the system seller knows.
Note that game analysts typically require the results not of hundreds of hands, or millions of hands, but at the very least tens of millions of hands.
Over one trillion hands were played to calculate the figures in this book.
Most of the betting methods commercially available involve raising your bet after a series of losses.
This means that the system buyer may well win more sessions than he loses, but he will win quite small amounts in his winning sessions and lose very large amounts in his losing sessions.
If he is reasonably well financed, the system buyer will, initially, probably grind ahead with a series of wins.
Some of the people who use the system-seller's method will lose, curse their gullibility, and try to forget they were ever duped.
Many will win, though, because baccarat is a game with such a small house take, where a lucky player could remain ahead of the game for some time, easily for a few thousand hands.
The of a system will not change the odds portsmouth va 2020 poker the game in the slightest way, though the player naturally believes he has found the elixir of wealth and tells everyone about his wonderful secret, providing free publicity for the system seller.
The player will defend his system to the death, even when it inevitably begins to lose.
He can't give up now, he has invested himself emotionally in the system's success, and to admit defeat would mean accepting a crushing psychological blow.
Because of the pattern of his losses, which will be infrequent and large, he will convince himself that it is merely a run of bad luck that is causing him to lose.
There is a new category of baccarat system seller emerging who pretends to sell winning card-counting systems.
After all, many people know that blackjack card-counters are barred from casinos, as this has been popularized in films such as Rain Man, so why would the same methods not work as well in baccarat?
Well, as I will explain in Chapter 3, my reason for believing so is because the most brilliant minds in gambling have proved it cannot be done.
There may be a very advanced card-counting strategy which could allow you to win to some extent, as I will explain, but if it avery cardozas casino 2020 download exist it would require extraordinary patience, dedication, and financial resources to be successful.
The system sellers do not possess such a method, of that I am certain.
They would have no incentive in doing so in any case, since it has been proven time and time again that advertising an easy strategy which does not work will be always be more commercially successful than trying to sell a difficult strategy which does.
I will not even mention that class of system seller who peddles astrology, fortune charms, or black magic to guarantee success at the table, fun as it may be.
Well, okay, maybe I will.
The issue is a little more relevant now because of the interest engendered by paranormal phenomena with a veneer of scientific respectability, such as extrasensory perception.
If you had the ability to predict which cards would turn up a few seconds before they actually did, then baccarat would be a piece of cake.
Unfortunately, there's no hard proof to suggest that ESP works.
There is, however, a very real reason to believe in the even more unlikely force which causes people to believe a completely illogical and ridiculous explanation of something in preference to an ordinary and rational one.
Perhaps there's an elite group of psychics turning the baccarat tables on Las Vegas as we speak—or perhaps not.
Many people will tell you that anyone who knew how to make money from gambling would use the system himself rather than sell it.
In fact, this is only a half truth.
There are systems which have been proven to make money at various forms of gambling, but they often require as much effort as you would put into slotastic bonus codes september 2020 other career, and your earnings will be both variable and probably less than spectacular.
The system sellers will tell you, however, that you can make a fortune both quickly and without any effort, but if there really were such an easy way to beat the house, then the casino industry would go broke in next to no time.
Does Mini-Baccarat Differ From Big-Table Baccarat?
Many players maintain that the odds in mini-baccarat are different from those in the main game.
On the face of it, there would seem to be a possible basis for this claim.
It is true that since the rules are identical there should be no difference between the odds of the two games; on the other hand, it may be that the different shuffling styles could cause different results.
A plausible scenario might be that cards sloppily shuffled from "new-deck" order would favor the player, the bank, or tie.
New decks are ordered in the following sequences: Ace to King, Ace to King, King to Ace, King to Ace.
Ten-valued cards will clump together, creating many zero-valued hands.
It can be seen that cards dealt out in new-deck order will heavily favor the tie bet if no shuffling took place but of course this would never happen.
Perhaps this tie bias could survive a simple shuffle?
I tested this idea on Dennis Suggs's "Baccarat Buster" software, which has the ability to simulate real-world shuffles.
Unfortunately, with anything approaching the complexity of even the simplest casino shuffle, any inherent bias is removed and the various bets even out.
For those of you who distrust computers and doubt their ability to simulate the myriad factors inherent in a real shuffle, there is data on actual games from Erick St.
Germain in his Seventy-two Days at the Baccarat Table.
The author analyzed thousands of shoes of both big-table baccarat and mini-baccarat.
His conclusion: "If there is a difference, it is very tiny.
Germain spent time studying, but in the absence of any contrary data, my suggestion is that the two versions of the game do not differ significantly, and my research has been conducted with this in mind.
This does not mean, however, that the respective shuffling processes are completely random, merely that a player with no knowledge of the ordering of the cards should assume that the expectations of the various bets are their ordinary mathematical ones.
Does Which Seat You Sit in Matter in Baccarat?
In other card games, such as blackjack and poker, seating position has an important effect on the odds and the correct playing strategy.
This leads some people to believe that the same is true of baccarat.
Because the game is purely mechanical with no scope for playing decisions, this is not, in fact, the case.
Seating position only affects the ceremony of the game.
In the older versions of baccarat, seating position is of some importance.
In chemin de fer, seating position determines who will hold the bank most frequently, while in baccarat en banque, the active player on the second half of the table has useful information about the first player.
Women at the Baccarat Tables The use of "he" in this book is primarily for convenience of language, though it also reflects the reality of the situation.
Comparatively few women play in the baccarat pit if they are not house employees.
This is hardly surprising in the light of the fact that the gambling world is one of the last unreconstructed bastions of male chauvinism.
The last forty years have apparently passed many casinos by, not to mention many gamblers.
The seemingly universal assumption among gamblers, and I'm talking about professional gamblers with Ph.
This is a selffulfilling assumption, since few women are willing to brave the pungent stench of testosterone in order to become sufficiently knowledgeable about baccarat or other casino games.
Nevertheless, this situation benefits nobody; not the casinos, who are wasting a very profitable resource of consumers; not women in general, who doubtless would appreciate the escapist fantasy baccarat offers as much as the man next to them; and certainly not average Joe Hick, who sorely needs to spend more time in the company of women.
My advice to the casinos is that they seriously consider how their staff behave towards women, which should be chivalrously and courteously without being patronizing—not because of some liberal politically-correct agenda, but because to do otherwise is to lose money.
Baccarat, with its understated aura and elegant procedures, would doubtless be a good starting point to bring women into gambling.
There is something akin to the feminine mystique in the ritual of the game which a wise pit boss would do well to take advantage of.
Prior to the publication of this book, it was widely assumed that no method existed which could give the player the ability to take on the casinos at baccarat.
Many gambling books will tell you that there is no way to win consistently at baccarat.
In fact, there are ways, though baccarat is by no means the easiest game at which to make money.
The first scientifically avery cardozas casino 2020 download approach to baccarat was that of card-counting.
What follows is a concise history of the subject.
Readers familiar with this subject may slap or skim through this section, which is intended to explain the concepts involved to a beginner.
Card-counting is an advanced gambling tool, which could in theory visit web page a player the advantage in almost any card game.
Card-counting was developed in the 1950s by Dr.
Professor Thorp is so extraordinary that had he not really lived, as a character of fiction his exploits would have been dismissed as far-fetched.
Unquestionably the greatest mind ever to turn his attention to gambling, Thorp has made small fortunes at blackjack, roulette, and sports betting; he also pioneered the incredibly successful "warrant-hedging" technique on the greatest gambling game of all, the stock market.
He is without doubt the please click for source successful gambler who has ever lived.
All of this was due to an extraordinary ability to understand the mathematics of gambling games and devise practical systems to bend chance to his will.
Experimenting with the game of blackjack, Thorp discovered that when you remove certain cards from the deck, this alters the house advantage.
He also found that a player could sometimes have the advantage over the house.
For example, removing all the 5s from a deck puts the odds in the player's favor.
These favorable situations are outnumbered by unfavorable ones, and so, on average, an unskilled player would lose more than he wins.
Thorp discovered, however, if the player knows when he has the advantage, he can bet more than when the house has the advantage, and so win more money than he loses.
Thorp constructed his highly successful ten-count system, with which he won many thousands of dollars from the casinos at blackjack.
They retaliated with a series of countermeasures designed to thwart the "counters," the disciples who read Thorp's bestselling Beat the Dealer and tried their own luck with his system.
There are still some professional counters around today, although the casinos are wise to the danger and bar any player they suspect is counting.
How does counting work?
Well, the most popular systems are called "point counts.
Cards whose removal from the deck is bad are given a minus value, good cards are given a plus value.
At all times, the counter keeps a running count in his head which begins at zero.
Every time he sees a card he adds or subtracts its value from the running count in his head.
When the running count is high lots of plus cards are dealt the player has the advantage and should bet more.
When it is negative he should bet the minimum or leave the table.
The ratio between the player's "large" and "small" bets is called his bet spread, and the larger it is, the more he will win.
A typical count looks like this this is the popular high-low count : Ace Ten Nine Eight Seven Six -1 -1 0 0 0 +1 +1 Five Four Three Two +1 +1 +1 It is hard to guess at the amount of money casinos have lost to blackjack card-counters, but the figure is unlikely to be less than tens of millions of dollars.
Thorp had discovered that rare thing, a gambling system which actually worked.
So, of what interest is this to baccarat players?
Well, it is a little-known fact that card-counting can also be applied to baccarat.
Thorp and other gambling mathematicians began searching around for other games to win at, and baccarat seemed the obvious choice.
As in blackjack, the cards are dealt until the pack is depleted, then the cards are shuffled.
Therefore, the odds of the various bets change, as one hand after another is dealt from the shoe.
Thorp and a fellow academic, William Walden, investigated the possibility of applying card-counting techniques to baccarat, and their work was recorded for posterity—at the taxpayer's expense—in "A Winning Bet in Nevada Baccarat" Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.
The work was an outgrowth of Walden's Ph.
With the aid of a computer, Thorp and Walden determined the precise expectations for various bets.
Then they analyzed random subsets of thirteen cards, a typical minimum number of cards remaining in a deck before a shuffle, to see if either the player or banker bet was favorable the tie bet had not yet been introduced.
In only two occasions out of fifty-eight did Thorp and Walden discover any advantage.
Once the player had an edge of 3.
Clearly, they concluded, no system based on cardcounting could yield a practical winning strategy, for the favorable situations were just too infrequent.
There were two main reasons why the application of card-counting techniques would not work in baccarat, though they had been proven so successful in blackjack.
First, the game is dealt from eight or six decks, whereas blackjack was originally dealt from only one.
Thus, the original order of the cards is slower to change with multiple decks.
Second, the approximate 1 percent disadvantage the bettor faces on the player and banker bets, while small when compared with most other casino games, is quite large when compared with blackjack, which is typically 0.
In a footnote to the text, however, Thorp stated that a strategy might be feasible when technology progressed further, and that, in any case, he only ruled out strategies based on card-counting.
He added, intriguingly, that strategies based on an analysis of card-shuffling might produce a winning method.
At that time, casinos also offered two side bets in addition to the main part of the game, depending on whether or not the bankers' first two cards would total 8 or 9, which paid off at 9 to 1.
Under ordinary circumstances, these bets had a large house advantage of approximately 5 percent, but the academics discovered that when there was a large number of 8s or 9s remaining to be dealt, i.
They designed a card-counting system to exploit these favorable opportunities.
Because these situations were not too frequent, occurring only 10 percent of the time in every shoe, it was necessary for a winning system-player to raise his bets by a factor of forty in order to counter the attrition of the many small waiting bets he would have to make.
With a team of trained players, the two went to Nevada with a highly successful application of their system.
After five nights, Thorp was under scrutiny.
After the seventh night the team was barred.
In the next casino they visited they raised their stakes.
Then the side bets disappeared, throughout the state, never to return.
Perhaps this was for the best, for in a Las Vegas which still had close connections with the mob, it is unlikely that the team would have been allowed to go on winning indefinitely.
It seems somewhat surprising that no other card players had discovered for themselves the system which Thorp and his associates used, particularly since the system was so simple, and the importance of card removal in blackjack and the European forms of baccarat was already recognized though not fully understood.
Perhaps they were more adept at concealing their methods.
Shortly afterward, a side bet began to appear on the tables which paid 8 or 9 to one whenever the result of a hand was tied.
This gradually became a standard feature of the game.
Interest in the application of mathematics to baccarat remained largely dormant for the next decade.
David Sklansky, one of the more innovative of gambling writers, discovered that if the last six cards dealt from a baccarat shoe were three 2s and three 3s, the player bet enjoyed an 80 percent advantage.
The banker bet enjoys a similar advantage if only 7s and 8s remain in the deck.
Sklansky stated that card-counting may indeed be possible at baccarat, and suggested devising a count which weighed 2s and 3s against 7s and 8s.
In March 1982, the Gambling Times published a series of six-card subsets which could give the player an advantage at the very end of the deck.
This inspired Joel Friedman to investigate all possible six-card subsets.
He discovered that a player with computer-perfect knowledge of the last six-card subsets could gain an average profit of 26 percent on that hand.
By raising his bets fourfold or morehis profits could outweigh the loss from making the approximately eighty "waiting" bets on the banker that the player would have to make in order to earn the right to bet on this last hand.
More than 24 percent of his gain would come from the tie bet.
This finding seemed strange, considering the tie bet is almost always disregarded by expert opinion as a frivolous wager that only a fool would make, since it is fourteen times less favorable than the bank or player bets.
As Friedman's study showed, however, the tie advantage changes much more rapidly than the player or the banker.
The tie is like a golden chalice in a snake pit.
It was left to Peter Griffin, the world's leading authority on the mathematics of blackjack, to investigate the matter fully in his Theory of Blackjack.
After producing a rendition of the history of the subject of card-counting in baccarat, Griffin presented his "ultimate point count," so called because it would be impossible to design a more powerful count for the game.
The count values are given below: Why does the removal of certain cards favor certain bets, while some cards make other bets less favorable?
Well, you can see from Griffin's table that the tie bet becomes more attractive if a lot of 6s are unplayed.
This is explained by the fact that should either the first or second player cards be a 6, then they are more likely to be click the following article with a zero-valued card than any other, giving a total of 6.
If the bank hand is also a 6, then the think, free joker wild poker games opinion is a tie and no further cards are drawn.
If the bank hand counts less than 6, then another card will be drawn, effectively giving the bank another chance to equal the player's total from the tie bettor's perspective.
Only a bank total of 7, 8, or 9 results in an automatic loss for the tie bet.
In this instance, the tie is heavily favored.
Such a situation is more frequent if there are many 6s waiting to be dealt.
The explanation for the changes in advantage with the player and bank bets is a little more complex.
Basically, the discrepancy is caused by the difference between the player's fairly crude rules for drawing a third card and the bank's comparatively sophisticated decisions based on the turn of the player's card.
Griffin's count weighs cards of value from to 4 against those from 5 to 9 10-valued cards make little difference either way. can be seen that this relates directly to the instructions for the player with a total from 0 to 5 for drawing a third card.
A high number of cards of value from Ace through to 4 increases the chances of the player bettering his total, while a high number of cards valued 4 through 9 increases the likelihood that the player hand will worsen, and more often than not the bank will stand in this situation.
Note that the bank hand will tend to stand on winning totals more often than the player hand.
The bank hand is comparatively unaffected by these phenomena, as its more intelligent rules mean that certain cards benefit or hinder the bank, depending on the composition of the hand dealt.
Nonetheless, it gains or loses according slot machine wins august 2020 the player's increased or decreased likelihood of drawing to a good total.
It also helps the bank to have a surplus of high cards when it has a total against which it must draw, i.
Griffin explains how his count works: Suppose the first hand out of the shoe uses a 3 and a 4 for the player and a 9 and a Jack for the bank.
Our running count for the bank bet is 2.
Now don't plunge into the bank bet just because we have a positive count!
You estimate the bank expectation to be: -1.
So the shoe is not quite ready for us.
Clearly, Griffin was not intending this for practical use.
It would be impossible to make such complicated calculations in the short time available between hands, even with the aid of a scorecard.
Griffin was trying to create the most powerful count he could, and if that could not beat the game, then a less powerful, more usable count could not do any better.
This is only if all the cards are dealt out, something which no casino would ever do.
The problem is that unlike in blackjack, where the advantage between player and dealer can change wildly, the removal of a card in baccarat has very little effect on the odds of the game.
The problem is that while Friedman's analysis was correct, cards are never dealt right to the end in the real world; typically, ten to twenty cards are removed, or burned placed face down at the start of the deal.
If the value of even a few cards is kept from the player's knowledge, his earning potential is dramatically reduced.
For example, with ten cards remaining, a player with computer-perfect information has an earning potential of 3 percent of whatever he bets on this hand, nine times less than with six cards remaining, and in the real world, it is unusual for the cards to be dealt this deeply.
Also, Griffin's tie count actually lost money, even though it was only supposed to be wagering on favorable situations.
There are a number of reasons for this.
First, Griffin recognized and produced data to confirm that as the pack was depleted, the accuracy of his count system diminished.
At the very end of the deck it was very unreliable indeed, precisely when any favorable situations, infrequent as they were, would occur.
Second, Griffin assumed that the average probability of a tie remained constant, at 14.
In fact, this is not the case.
As more of the pack is dealt, the tie becomes less favorable.
This is known as the "floating advantage.
When card-counting, all of the favorable situations we can raise our wager on— according to Griffin's count system—occur with only half to a quarter deck or less remaining, so the tie expectation is even worse.
Consequently, our count system will be telling us to make many bets when we have no advantage.
Griffin provides us with a table which seems to prove this hypothesis.
He gives us data about the actual expectation of the various bets when thirteen cards are remaining, and their estimated expectation according to his count system.
Sure enough, the tie count's estimate is significantly higher than its actual expectation.
Moreover, Griffin's bank count underestimates its actual advantage, while the player count overestimates its actual advantage, while the player count overestimates it.
This is in accordance with the "floating edge" hypothesis, as taunton casino news 2020 bank bet becomes more favorable with fewer decks, at the expense of the player.
For more information on this very complicated subject, see Appendix C.
Thorp backed up Griffin's findings in The Mathematics of Gambling 1981stating that the removal of a card in baccarat was nine times less bearing on the results than in blackjack.
Few were prepared to attack these widely respected authors' findings, but one source of dissent came from the 1992 book The Money-Spinners, by Englishman "Jacques Black" as a blackjack card-counter, his identity needed to be kept secret from the casinos.
Black had used a simplified derivation of Griffin's count system for the bank and player in several London casinos, and made a profit of 2,000 English pounds.
However, he himself was unsure whether this was not merely a chance fluctuation from an expected negative result that would reveal itself in time.
Black's work sparked my initial interest in baccarat.
He describes how casinos have a lethal arsenal of techniques to prevent card-counting in blackjack, but none to prevent counting in baccarat.
This, he admitted, was largely because the most brilliant gambling mathematicians believed it could not be done.
If a count could be devised to win at baccarat, a player could bet any sum he chose and become wealthy beyond his dreams.
He could play whenever he chose, renounce his life as a hired hand, and become a professional gambler, beholden to no one.
Moreover, as with Edward Thorp, he would become a famous and respected figure.
Black's contention was that Griffin used a pessimistic model with which to calculate his results.
Griffin assumed an eight-deck American baccarat shoe took over an hour to deal.
Black's experience playing six-deck London Punto Banco was that it took only thirty to forty minutes to deal out a shoe.
Since more hands played per hour meant a greater number of favorable opportunities on which to bet, the player's earnings could be increased by seeking out faster games, such as Black describes.
In fact, some mini-baccarat dealers can get through six decks in ten minutes.
Black also recognized that the higher table maximums available in baccarat made it possible to see a large link return in terms of money won even if the advantage gained was very small.
Finally, he noted that the cut-card was extremely deep in the deck, remarking that in the first game he played the cut-card was located eight cards from the bottom.
Griffin assumed that before the final hand was dealt, the minimum number of cards remaining, in even the best games, was no fewer than ten.
This difference is very significant.
I created a computer program click here simulate a game of baccarat to see for myself whether Black's count works.
Unfortunately, it does not.
Black's reasoning is fundamentally flawed.
I concluded that the banker and player bets are too symmetrical for the purposes of card-counting; neither bet is significantly favored by the removal of a particular card.
Considering, for example, that any hand comprised of four cards has perfect symmetry, the composition of the deck has no effect at all on such a hand, since what is good for the player is good for the banker.
So one-third of all hands are completely unaffected by card removal.
The slight discrepancies which occur between player and banker with five-or six-card hands are just that—slight.
Then I tested further count systems, some of my own creation, some created by others.
All exhibited a loss or an expectation too small to be of any practical value.
I finally tried Griffin's "ultimate point count," and found that his results were confirmed by my own.
End-Play—The Silicon Method I wondered if a computer might play with enough accuracy to allow me to play baccarat with a worthwhile advantage.
Computers to play blackjack and to predict the path of a roulette ball have been both designed and successfully tested in the casino.
Their operators concealed the devices in their shoes and decoded the information they received through a series of electric vibrations.
There are places in the world where use of a computer is not necessarily illegal.
Nevada isn't one of them, and use of a computer there may lead to a jail sentence.
Atlantic City doesn't allow it either, although there the maximum punishment you can get is comparatively small considering the potential rewards.
Some European countries have no specific legislation to prevent the use of a computer.
A computer could tell me exactly when any of the three bets was favorable.
All I had to do was tell it which cards had been dealt.
Unfortunately, when I wrote a program to detect advantageous situations on my home computer the results were not spectacular.
With a game dealt down to ten cards and perfect wagering any time there was a favorable situation, I could expect to earn approximately 4.
There are some games in which you may get a cut-card only nine or eight cards deep, seven if you can see the bottom card, so you may be able to earn much more than this.
I'd also have to make some unfavorable bets earlier in the shoe, since I couldn't just sit at the table doing nothing, and this would dilute my advantage further.
This is still a very good wage, but it's quite a small return on investment—and I didn't have the money to bet at such high levels anyway, without an unacceptable risk of ruin.
If I did, I would have kept on doing what made me the money in the first place.
The costs of devising a concealed computer are themselves prohibitive, and the project would be unrewarding compared to devising a computer to assist you at other forms of gambling.
For example, computers devised to predict the path of a roulette ball can give you a 44 percent edge on every wager.
A better approach to winning at baccarat via computer would be to design one to analyze simple shuffles.
It's theoretically possible to track a shuffle with a hidden camera and feed the data into a computer.
You could then predict the value of every card with a high degree of certainty as they are dealt.
Simpler devices have already been tested to analyze successive card shuffles with a spectacular degree of success.
My research wasn't entirely wasted, though.
I estimated that 80 or 90 percent of the earnings a computer could make from baccarat could be won by a human of reasonable intelligence.
This is because most of the profit comes from recognizing when the tie bet is extremely favorable, i.
The contribution of the occasional favorable bank and player bets is unimportant.
So are the relatively small advantages which occur for the tie bet, and determining when the tie bet is very favorable is not impossible.
There was one acknowledged gambling authority whose methodology appeared sound and who believed in the potential of a winning baccarat system.
Mike Caro, a gambling pioneer known chiefly for his work on the application of body language to poker, wrote in Caro on Gambling 1984 that he had run 120 computer simulations of 2,500 sample baccarat hands.
He detected 7 situations out of 120 when ties yielded a profit of 15 percent or more.
This led Caro to speculate that a counting system based on combinations of cards for the tie wager might be successful.
Note that it's not difficult to find games with more cards you sky poker free bet accept out.
Caro argues that there are a number of generalizations that can be made.
The gambler has an advantage on the tie bet If 75 percent of the remaining cards are 10s, 6s, and 7s.
If 70 percent of the deck contains 5s, 4s, 3s, 2s, and Aces.
If 50 percent of the deck is composed of 6s and 7s.
Caro's simulations were based on an analysis of twenty card subsets.
His conclusions were tentative, and he made no pretense of the fact that further work would be required to determine the viability of his ideas with statistical confidence., however, how Caro's simulation results differ from Griffin's.
This can be attributed to the greater sample size of Griffin's article source, but also indicates how difficult it is to restrict the variance of the volatile tie bet.
The "Perfect" Bet Another simple idea, which I'm sure many players must have considered, is expressed in Roger Gros's How to Win at Casino Gambling 1993.
It was the suggestion of an anonymous baccarat supervisor in Atlantic City in the late 1970s.
Gros elaborates: Since face cards and 10s are worth nothing in baccarat, this supervisor suggested that if you could count all the cards that are dealt in baccarat and determine that all the cards remaining when the yellow card appears are 10s or face cards, you know a nothing-nothing tie will be declared on the last hand.
A player with that knowledge could then place the maximum bet on the tie.
The problem is that the odds on the final ten or fifteen cards being all 10s or face cards are pretty high.
Very high, in fact.
With eight cards remaining, the most optimistic level of penetration you are likely to receive, the chance of only 10s and face cards remaining, is less than.
In a real game, of course, the number of cards cut out of play, or burned, will typically be more than this.
This makes this improbable event a negligible second-order possibility.
With sixteen cards remaining, for example, the event will occur every few hundred million times, or every couple of ice ages.
Moreover, Gros doesn't explain how you might actually go about determining when this wildly unlikely situation might arise.
This is fairly simple, though; there are 288 non-ten-valued cards in the deck.
Note down a notch on your scorecard every time you see a card other than ten, and when you reach 288, only 10s remain.
Nonetheless, the idea got me thinking.
Plainly, it was unnecessary for the deck to be so extreme rich with tens.
If the deck was composed mostly of 10s, the player might still have a large advantage.
Then it occurred to me that a successful counting system would detect concentrations of cards, which were not intrinsically good or bad for the tie, in small subsets.
Therefore, a point-count system would be of no use; the player would have to achieve close to computer-perfect play.
This can be done by striking off the cards as they are dealt on the casino tally sheet, or scorecard.
If the tie bet is favorable, he can put down a very large wager, since the odds are in his favor.
Of course, this may attract attention and suspicion from casino personnel, particularly if the player is winning, so it may be advisable to develop some form of coded notation for this purpose.
With compositions composed of a quarter deck or less, 10s become very important in determining favorable tie wagers.
Note that this result is contrary to Griffin's findings.
This is because late in the deck, the increased fluctuation means the number of 10s tends to dominate the deck structure.
The following table explains how extreme numbers of 10s can give the player an edge: Regardless of other considerations, with less than thirteen continue reading, a player should avoid the tie, if three or more single cards of a positive value other than a 10 or a face-card are present.
So, for example, eight 10s, one Ace, one 2, one 7, or one 9 is an unfavorable tie wager.
Single cards are helpful to the tie bet only when there are two whose combined value is 10, e.
I have found Caro's suggestions a useful guideline.
In addition, a player should always assume a tie advantage if: All the cards in the deck are even.
There are no more than three cards of a particular value remaining in the deck, e.
There are two 7s remaining with less than ten cards left.
There are two 7s and two 6s with less than twelve cards left.
There are other peculiar deck subsets which exhibit a positive expectation for the tie for no apparent reason.
For example, when every card value has precisely two cards remaining i.
To track all the myriad situations is clearly not possible, but by following these recommendations you may be able to capture the lion's share of expected value.
The full strategy for determining favorable tie situations is beyond the scope of this book.
Nevertheless, you have the most vital elements of the strategy already.
The advantage distribution for the tie is comparatively stable when the deck structure is intact, hence the small effects of removal calculated by Griffin.
Conventional linear count systems, however, assume a standard deck, and with extreme concentrations of cards in small subsets this assumption can be wildly inaccurate.
The huge shifts in edge which are necessary to detect in order to gain an advantage, occur with the rise in the total number of denominations eliminated from the pack, although the specific denominations are relatively unimportant.
To a certain extent, this is empirically verifiable.
With only one card of any value remaining, the tie wager enjoys an advantage of between 500 and 800 percent.
With two denominations, the advantage falls slightly, as the possible number of outcomes is doubled.
By the time we reach five or six denominations, the advantage if any becomes marginal.
This "concentration theory" is not only relevant to baccarat, it is a necessary addition to the fundamental theory of card-counting, and to the mathematics of sampling without replacement.
To learn these rules, and to note the cards accurately as they are dealt, may seem daunting.
Actually, with application the task becomes relatively easy and can be learned perfectly with a few months practice.
When a player does detect a favorable situation, he will never know his precise advantage, a serious drawback to this system because it can lead to overbetting.
It should not, however, unduly trouble the well-financed player.
When these occur, the advantages are often high—on average around 20 percent—though they can rise to as much as 450 percent.
I once detected a situation in which there were only 10s and 5s in the deck, which yielded approximately that great of an edge.
Ideally, while waiting for the end of the shoe, a player should wager only on the bank hand, possibly betting only every other hand so as to appear to be following some trending system and saving money, and betting the minimum.
When you get to the last hand, try betting a peculiar amount though preferably small on the bank, which will slow down the game enough to give you time to analyze the remaining cards for an advantage.
I typically raise my bets by fifty times the table minimum, which, surprisingly, has never drawn me any heat.
Such a strategy, however, requires a large bankroll.
The chief drawback to this system is that you need the patience of a saint, as favorable end-deck compositions occur very, very rarely.
This is a very big drawback.
You will find a favorable tie wager perhaps one shoe in thirty, though this varies greatly with the number of exposed cards.
For the vast majority of gamblers, this is an unacceptably long time to wait for a good bet.
When they do occur, however, they are the most favorable opportunities you will find in any form of gambling.
There are certain tricks to make this system more attractive.
In games with European-style penetration, where no cards are cut out of play, you will occasionally come across dealers who accidentally expose the burn cards.
In some cases, you will be able to know the values of all the cards dealt, making your edge substantially higher, frequently exceeding 100 percent, particularly if the deck is dealt down to the last card.
Remember, your earning potential is an average 24 percent of your bet if you have perfect knowledge of the last six cards.
Much of this gain will come from situations in which you have four 10s and a pair, or four 10s and two other cards whose value adds up to 10.
To find such clumsy dealers is not easy.
To make money consistently you will need a team to scout for such opportunities.
I have found that female dealers with small hands are most likely to make this error.
You will usually only be able to see the cards at a certain angle, so your seating position will be crucial.
This will vary from dealer to dealer.
Alternatively, you can place an agent, or "spook," directly behind the dealer, who can then signal to you the value of the burn cards dealt.
This practice is currently a legal grey area in Nevada, though it may not be elsewhere.
Depending on the number of cards you can "spook," you will be able to spread your bet less dramatically than would normally be the case.
If you can see all the burn cards, a 1 to click here bet spread will be sufficient to generate attractive profits.
Another method is to abandon any game in which an excess number of 10s have been dealt.
This method is known as back-counting, or "Wonging" after the master gambler Stanford Wong, who first popularized this technique at the blackjack tables.
Tens play a crucial role in the very large advantages it is possible to get on the last hand.
If a lot of 10s have already been dealt, your chance of getting a favorable wager on the tie is very small, and you are probably wasting your time continuing to play through the shoe.
My recommendation would be to abandon any game where the ratio of 10s to other cards falls below.
This will significantly boost your expected value per shoe by almost double the figures given by Griffin.
It bay area casinos 2020 new mean, however, abandoning games, probably more than might be considered practical.
It may be possible to determine a better method of knowing when to leave the game, for example, by determining that the number of cards remaining for each denomination at each stage of the deck are not sufficiently different from their expected values to suggest the possibility of a favorable read article wager at the conclusion of the shoe.
But this is a task for future generations.
In summary, it is certainly possible to make money at baccarat by card-counting if you are prepared to undertake a great deal of study, are adequately financed, possessed of great powers of concentration, and able to bet from the table minimum to the table maximum without attracting attention—but you might well be better off using those qualities to make a fortune elsewhere.
For the expert player in the most favorable games, it certainly would be possible to break even, or maybe make small profits.
He could then excellent highest paid poker players 2020 that free casino complimentaries for the rest of his days.
Even to break even, however, requires at least a spread of 1 to 30 in a six-deck game, assuming every hand is played.
This requires a huge bankroll.
Moreover, the slightest mistake will obliterate your advantage.
Also, there is no easy way to hide an increase in your bets by a factor of thirty on the last hand.
This will undoubtedly cause suspicion on the part of the casino —and favorable bets are very, very rare.
A Simple Social Count to Lose Less For the player who does not wish to go to the great lengths necessary to win at baccarat, but who simply wants the pride of playing better than nearly all of his fellow gamblers, to play for comps see Chapter 12or to follow a system other than the hypnotically stupid trending systems described elsewhere, then I present you with a simple card-counting system.
If you want to lose a little less and do not mind extending a little effort, try the following scheme: use Thorp's count, not to determine when to raise your bets, but to determine which hand to bet on in order to minimize your losses.
Because the player and bank hand have very similar house advantages, often the very slight effects of removal will cause the least advantageous bet—the one that makes least money for the house—to intermittently switch between bank and player.
How much can you save from doing this?
Well, on average, almost 8 percent of your wager.
This amount may be slightly more or slightly less, depending on the amount of cards dealt.
Here is the system: How do we use this count?
Starting at 0, add or subtract a total in your head or write it down on your scorecard.
The total is called the running count.
Divide this total by the number of decks remaining.
There is no need to be too exact about this; you can do this by looking at the discard tray and estimating the number of cards that have been dealt.
A simpler way is to count the number of hands.
A hand of baccarat uses about five cards on average, so almost every time another hand is dealt, one-tenth of a deck is depleted.
So, after every ten hands another deck is gone.
Whenever you have a true count of — 1 or less, bet on the player.
Whenever you have a total of greater than —1, bet on the banker.
This system is not as accurate as Griffin's, but my experience in designing other card-counting systems for games such as trente et fuarante, blackjack, and Red Dog, suggests that greatldy simplifying the complexity of a very powerful system produces little measurable loss in performance, providing that the bet advantage is basically linear.
The loss is unlikely to be more than 3 or 4 percent worse than Griffin's system.
Actually, using all three counts suggested by Griffin would result in my count losing you less money, since Griffin's tie count would lose the money gained by his bank and player counts.
How can we improve on this system?
Well, first of all, we can play with only six decks.
Our card count will save us slightly more in the sixdeck game because in the first two decks of an eight-deck shoe the advantage will change very slowly, and counting provides us only with a fractional gain over simply betting on the banker on every hand.
Most of your savings come later in the shoe, especially on the last deck.
For this reason I would advise not betting at all, or betting the table minimum, until the second half of the shoe, although you must still count down the shoe while you are waiting.
This can be a very effective strategy for maximizing your comp value.
Try to look for a game where as many cards as possible are being dealt.
Card-counting is more effective in a game where ten cards are cut out of play than thirty cards.
We could use a more complicated system, such as the two-parameter system suggested by Downton and Lockwood in Chapter 8.
We could incorporate adjustments to the count for the floating advantage.
We could attempt to devise a practical system for the tie bet.
But this would involve a degree of difficulty which the recreational player would find off-putting.
In this situation, you will have a very slight advantage over the casino somewhere between 0.
You can then place a wager of whatever size you want with the knowledge that chance is on your side.
This is the only casino game in which you would be able to do this.
Other games, such as roulette and craps, never give you an advantage.
A blackjack player can detect situations in which he has the edge over the house, but to prevent detection he must not raise his bet too drastically, or he will be thrown out of the casino.
This won't happen to you at baccarat, since very few people know how to count cards at this game.
Finally, in a game with a 4 percent commission or lesscounting cards is not worthwhile.
In this situation, the player bet will only very rarely be more favorable than the banker.
The Secret Wager For the player who's not interested in just minimizing losses, but wants to pull off a spectacular coup perhaps using the maximum boldness strategy suggested in Chapter 2knowing how to count cards will allow him to place a bet when the advantage is nonexistent, or, provided he is patient, when he actually has the edge.
Wait until the count has become very positive or very negative, above or below at least 20.
The more extreme the count the higher your advantage.
Such situations aren't all that common; this will probably only ever occur in the last few hands of a shoe.
Depending on how fast the game is dealt, 4 Analyzing the Shuffle So far the statistics given with regard to the player's expectation have been calculated on the basis that the shuffle is entirely random, that is, every card has an exactly equal chance of finishing in any position in the deck.
In fact, this is a virtually impossible feat for even the most proficient croupier.
Richard Click likened a random shuffle to a drunken inebriate scattering the cards in the air and retrieving them while blindfolded.
At this point, Professor Edward Thorp reenters the story.
In a little known paper in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society entitled "Nonrandom Shuffling With Application to the Game of Just click for source he wrote: Card games have been played for centuries, and today hundreds are well-known.
There is an extensive literature of the heuristic, and to a lesser extent, of the mathematical analyses of these games.
Virtually without exception, these treatments tacitly or explicitly assume random shuffling.
It is surprising, because the play of many games is altered by the nonrandomness of human shuffling.
In particular, this nonrandomness yields simple winning strategies at blackjack, baccarat, and faro.
How can we tell whether a shuffle is random or not?
Thorp goes on to describe how to do this.
The simple method is described below: Note down the order of the cards as they are dealt from an entire shoe.
Note the order of the cards as they are dealt in at least ten subsequent shoes.
Take this data away from the casino and analyze it.
Have a look at your data and see if anything strikes you as evidence of the process being nonrandom.
It might be that, say, a pattern appears of blocks of cards being one or two apart, followed by a block of cards that are at large, random intervals.
In fact, the effects of nonrandom shuffling at baccarat were already well documented.
This phenomenon predated the existence of the modern forms of baccarat dating back to the heyday of chemin de fer throughout France and in Monte Carlo.
The casino operators observed that ordinary shuffling did not sufficiently break up the order of the cards.
Consequently, entire hands would repeat from one shoe to the next.
This knowledge could be exploited by perceptive players.
Therefore, the casinos instituted complex procedures to break up the order of every distinct six-card sequence.
These procedures survive to this day.
Richard Epstein's Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic provided the first and only detailed analysis of card shuffling.
Epstein conducted actual shuffles rather than computer-simulated ones and wrote, "It was found that highly expert shufflers create sequences in singlecard interfacings approximately eight times as frequent as two-card interfacings: a group of three cards appears less than once per shuffle.
It is evident from this operation that a large measure of orderliness is preserved for a small number of shuffles.
Anthony Curtis, editor of the Las Vegas Advisor, conducted a similar experiment.
He obtained empirical data from four professional Las Vegas dealers who interleaved single cards 66 percent of the time, two cards 26 percent, three cards 5 percent, four cards 2 percent, and five cards less than 1 percent.
While there are substantial differences between the two studies, it is evident that a player may, at least in theory, be able to predict cards to be dealt based on his knowledge of the shuffle and the previous deck order. avery cardozas casino 2020 download avery cardozas casino 2020 download avery cardozas casino 2020 download avery cardozas casino 2020 download avery cardozas casino 2020 download avery cardozas casino 2020 download

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