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High stakes poker videos 2020We value your privacy When you visit TheAtlantic.
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For more information on how we process your personal data - or to update your preferences at any time - please visit our I Do Not Accept I Agree We are now entering the third week of the staring contest between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell over when the House of Representatives will deliver its articles of impeachment to the Senate, and under what circumstances.
McConnell has balked at agreeing this web page advance to call witnesses.
For this reason, the articles of high stakes poker videos 2020 remain stalled between the House and the Senate, with Pelosi refusing to deliver them to the other side of the Capitol until McConnell reaches some kind of accommodation with Schumer.
The questions then presented a challenge of immediate importance: What sort of behavior by a president so steps outside the bounds of what Americans should consider acceptable that the House should act to remove him from office?
To this question, there was a clear right answer, and the House acted to establish its view that Trump had breached his oath of office.
They are strategic questions about what the goal of a Senate trial should be—and tactical questions about how best to achieve it.
This goal includes presenting as much new evidence unavailable during the House proceeding as possible.
For the Senate Republican leadership, by contrast, the goal is to make the trial go away as quickly as possible and to prevent it from metastasizing into a larger search for evidence of presidential misconduct.
In high stakes poker videos 2020 tactical pursuit of such goals, the answers are far less clear-cut than they are when dealing with constitutional first principles.
A lot of commentators are speaking about the current standoff as though it were not a negotiation between savvy legislators but some great moral crusade.
But when and how the House delivers articles of impeachment to the Senate depends, for both Democrats and Republicans, on complicated cost-benefit calculations with many different inputs.
So the best way to understand the current contest is as a game of poker.
The big unseen cards are the votes of swing Republicans on the questions of early dismissal and calling witnesses.
A motion to dismiss requires 51 senators, as does a motion to block a witness.
That means that if the 53 Republican senators stick together, source can sustain a motion at any time to dismiss the trial.
Conversely, if three or four Republicans the exact number high stakes poker videos 2020 on how a specific motion is presented vote with Democrats, the impeachment managers could article source the trial from being dismissed and could call their witnesses.
McConnell has not ruled out witnesses altogether.
He hinted in that the Senate might take up a motion to dismiss the case against the president following those opening arguments, referencing a similar unsuccessful motion by Democrats during the Clinton impeachment.
If he knows the votes are there to make this go away, he would not need to give Pelosi and Schumer anything, because he can make short work of a trial if Pelosi ever delivers the articles without an agreement.
So by not delivering the articles, Pelosi prevents quick high stakes poker videos 2020, and thereby generates pressure for McConnell to reach an accommodation.
Except for two important things.
First, if McConnell is bluffing—that is, if he does not, in fact, know whether he has the votes—Pelosi can call his bluff by delivering the articles.
The worst case for McConnell, after all, is if the Democrats turn out to have enough votes to win repeated procedural motions and he has not negotiated a deal to limit the number of witnesses.
Then the trial could end up hearing from all kinds of people with evidence relevant to the case against the president—Rudy Giuliani, for starters.
If McConnell lacks the votes to limit witnesses, a this web page without some kind of framework deal to limit the possible damage would be a little like the U.
It would be very dangerous.
Such a trial could also be protracted, which is highly undesirable for the president in an election year.
Now imagine Pelosi does this, say, the week before the Republican Convention—or after Labor Day.
Remember also that such a trial will require vulnerable Republican senators running for reelection to cast tough votes.
These two problems, particularly in combination with one another, will likely force McConnell to the table if he is bluffing.
It is quite clear that Schumer and Pelosi do not know how many—if any—Republican Senate votes they can count on.
There is nothing intrinsically wrong with having a motion to dismiss before calling witnesses.
The key question, therefore, is what McConnell knows about his colleagues and their intentions.
We high stakes poker videos 2020 know soon enough.
If he is not confident he can count to 51, it is in his interests to negotiate a deal that limits the scope and duration of the trial, and to do so quickly.
If he is confident he has the votes, however, expect him to hold firm and insist that the only deal he will accept is one that allows what amounts to a final vote without hearing from witnesses.
That will leave Pelosi with no control of the trial—except as to its timing, over which she would retain effectively absolute control.
And now that Bolton has to testify before the Senate if subpoenaed, the pressure on moderate Republicans to break with McConnell may be even higher.
The card she holds, the card of timing, might be especially potent given that a —including a significant percentage of Republicans—think the Senate should consider new evidence during the https://internetbingogames.info/2020/trada-casino-no-deposit-bonus-codes-september-2020.html />So Pelosi is actually holding out for a position with majority support.
In other words, if the standoff continues, it will be a sign both that McConnell is confident and that Pelosi is choosing not to play her remaining card now.
Conversely, if Pelosi swiftly turns over the articles without any kind of deal, that would suggest one of two contradictory possibilities: either that she overplayed her hand in the high stakes poker videos 2020 place and is now cutting her losses, or that she has developed a certain degree of confidence that she will have the votes she needs—enough confidence, at least, to take her chances.
A deal, on the other hand, is a pretty sure sign that none of the negotiators have a strong instinct about what the swing senators really have planned and that both sides, consequently, are minimizing risk.
Facing a future of fire, drought, and rising oceans, Australians will have to weigh the choice between getting out early or staying to fight.
New research supports the idea that economic distress led to an increase in opioid abuse.
But some say the origins of the epidemic are far more complicated.
The film reveals that there was, and is, something powerful about domestic life, and that women are particularly attracted to it.
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